Mobility Transformation: A Roadmap to a Sustainable Future – Beyond the Scope of Electric Mobility

The mobility transition is one of the greatest opportunities of our time not only to achieve climate targets, but also to improve the quality of life in cities and rural regions. Advances such as the 49-euro ticket in Germany or the boom in e-bikes show that the willingness to change is growing.

But is that enough? In view of dilapidated rail infrastructures, stagnating rail logistics and a lack of political vision, Germany seems to be falling behind in the mobility transition. This article shows why the mobility transition must go far beyond electromobility, where the most pressing problems lie and which innovative approaches can serve as a model worldwide.

Mobility Turnaround AI

The mobility turnaround is one of the central challenges of our time. In short, it is often understood as the conversion to electromobility, i.e. the decarbonisation of individual transport by switching from combustion engines to electric drives. But this approach, which focuses exclusively on the so-called "drive turnaround", falls far short of the mark. A real mobility turnaround encompasses much more: it means not only how we drive, but also how we organize ourselves, where we live and work, and which means of transport we use.

Relocation and avoidance as central elements

In addition to decarbonisation, the shift of transport to more sustainable modes of transport plays a decisive role. This involves the promotion of public transport, rail as well as cycling and walking. At the same time, avoiding traffic is another key factor: Well thought-out settlement and spatial planning can ensure that people have to commute less and important facilities such as schools, workplaces and shopping facilities are easier to reach. But in Germany, there is a considerable need to catch up in these areas in particular.

According to the Federal Environment Agency, the transport sector accounted for around 20% of Germany's total greenhouse gas emissions in 2022. A large part of these emissions come from road traffic. If the share of rail transport in freight transport were to be doubled from the current 18% (as of 2021), the CO2 potential could be reduced by around 10 million tonnes per year.

Professor Andreas Knie, mobility expert at the Berlin Social Science Center, puts it in a nutshell: "Without a radical shift to rail and cycling, we will never achieve our climate goals."

Challenges of rail infrastructure

A look at the rail infrastructure makes it clear how big the deficits are. Deutsche Bahn is suffering from a decades-long investment backlog. According to a report by the German Federal Audit Office, more than 45 billion euros will be missing by 2030 alone to bring the rail infrastructure up to a modern level. The rail network is dilapidated in many places, with over 3,000 so-called slow speed zones slowing down traffic.

"Deutsche Bahn is not a means of transport of the future, but a memorial to German planning errors!"

Internationally, Germany has lost touch: While in countries such as Switzerland, almost 90% of rail journeys are made on time, Deutsche Bahn's punctuality rate in 2023 was only 65%. The share of freight transport by rail is also declining in Germany, while truck transports are increasing and putting a strain on the motorways.

By comparison, in Japan, the Shinkansen system transports millions of passengers every day with a punctuality rate of over 99%. France's TGV network also shows how high-speed trains can offer a real alternative to cars and planes.

Rail network per Capita

The graph illustrates the rail kilometres per 1,000 inhabitants in a global comparison. It shows that Switzerland has by far the densest rail network per inhabitant, while Germany falls significantly behind countries such as the USA and France. India, despite its large population and extensive rail network, has the lowest rail density per capita. These differences highlight the global challenges and priorities in infrastructure development.

Alternatives to passenger transport

However, there are approaches and technologies that give hope. Car sharing, bike sharing and mobility-as-a-service solutions are gaining in importance. In 2023, more than 4 million people in Germany used car sharing services, an increase of 25% compared to 2020. In urban centers, electric bicycles and cargo bikes have established themselves as environmentally friendly alternatives: In 2022 alone, over 2 million e-bikes were sold in Germany, accounting for about 43% of all bicycle purchases.

Autonomous driving could also play a role in the future, especially in the form of self-driving shuttles that efficiently link public transport and individual transport. In Hamburg, a pilot project with autonomous minibuses is already being tested, which is showing promising results. In addition, cable car systems in urban areas offer an innovative way to avoid traffic congestion, as the example of Medellín in Colombia impressively demonstrates.

Dr. Anja Weisgerber, Climate Protection Commissioner of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, emphasizes: "Technologies such as autonomous driving and digital networking will be crucial to making mobility more sustainable and efficient."

There are positive examples around the world that show what sustainable mobility can look like. The Dutch cities of Amsterdam and Utrecht are considered pioneers for bicycle-friendly infrastructures. Around 60% of all journeys in Utrecht are made by bicycle. In Switzerland, the railway company SBB guarantees that the train is a real alternative to the car through a regular timetable and a high level of reliability. In Asia, metropolises such as Tokyo and Seoul show how efficient public transport systems can work even in the face of extremely high population density.

Average mobility costs per kilometre (in euros, 2024):

The cost of mobility varies significantly around the world depending on the mode of transport and country. In Germany, for example, the operating costs for bus and rail transport are well below 0.5 euros per passenger kilometre. For passenger cars, the costs vary between 0.4 euros and over one euro per kilometer, depending on the model. Cycling is particularly cost-effective at an estimated 0.016 euros per kilometre.

In a European comparison, it can be seen that the bus causes the lowest environmental costs with an average of 1.07 cents per passenger-kilometre, followed by the train with 1.56 cents. Passenger cars, on the other hand, cost 5.34 cents, and air traffic is 12.83 cents per passenger-kilometre.

Cost Breakdown

 

Car (gasoline)

Average cost: €0.30–€0.40/km

Breakdown of costs:

·         Fuel costs: 0.12–0.15 €/km (petrol price approx. 1.80 €/litre, consumption approx. 8 litres/100 km)

·         Maintenance and repair: 0.05–0.07 €/km

·         Depreciation of the vehicle: 0.08–0.10 €/km

·         Insurance, taxes and fees: €0.04–€0.05/km

·         Other costs (e.g. parking): €0.01–€0.03/km

Car (Electric)

Average cost: €0.20–€0.30/km

Breakdown of costs:

·         Electricity costs: 0.06–0.09 €/km (charging costs approx. 0.35 €/kWh, consumption approx. 15–20 kWh/100 km)

·         Maintenance and repair: €0.03–€0.05/km (less than petrol due to fewer moving parts)

·         Depreciation of the vehicle: 0.08–0.12 €/km

·         Insurance and fees: 0.03–0.04 €/km

·         Other costs: €0.01–€0.02/km

Rail (long-distance traffic)

Average cost: €0.15–€0.20/km

Breakdown of costs:

·         Ticket prices: main cost factor, average €0.15/km (discounts such as BahnCard not included)

·         Grid fees and infrastructure costs: Partially covered by tickets

·         Subsidies and government subsidies: Flow indirectly (reduce the actual costs of the users)

ÖPNV (Bus, Tram)

Average cost: €0.10–€0.15/km

Breakdown of costs:

·         Ticket prices: main share, average €0.10/km

·         Subsidies: State subsidies reduce costs

·         Operating costs: fuel, personnel and maintenance

Bicycle

Average cost: €0.05–€0.10/km

Breakdown of costs:

·         Acquisition costs: Spread over lifetime, approx. €0.03/km

·         Maintenance: tires, chain, brakes, approx. 0.01–0.03 €/km

·         Other: Accessories, repairs, approx. 0.01 €/km

average cost of mobility of different typs of transportation

Reasons for cost differences:

Fuel prices and energy costs: In Germany and Switzerland, gasoline and electricity for electric vehicles are more expensive due to high taxes. Countries such as the USA and India have significantly lower fuel prices.

Subsidies: In India, public transport is heavily subsidised, which keeps the cost of buses and trains extremely low. Switzerland is investing massively in public transport, which increases the costs for the passenger, but also increases the quality.

Infrastructure quality: Countries such as Japan and Switzerland have state-of-the-art rail networks and high-speed trains, which translates into higher prices. In the USA, rail transport is less developed, but driving a car is comparatively cheap.

Labor costs: In developed countries such as Germany and France, high wages make buses, trains, and infrastructure more expensive to operate.

Societal preferences: In Japan and Switzerland, rail travel is highly prioritized, while in the U.S. and India, cars and buses dominate.

Climate policy: In Germany, mobility costs are higher due to CO₂ taxes and environmental regulations than in countries without strict climate policies (e.g. the USA).

Political, municipal and social approaches

In Germany, there are already some approaches to driving the mobility turnaround. One example is the 49-euro ticket, which is intended to facilitate access to public transport and is used by over 10 million people, according to the Ministry of Transport. In Berlin, car-free urban districts are being experimented with, such as the "Haus der Statistik", while in Freiburg and Münster, bicycle-friendly concepts have been successfully implemented for decades. There are also numerous initiatives at the municipal level: Stuttgart, for example, is investing heavily in the expansion of public transport to improve air quality. The city of Hanover is also planning a nationwide 30 km/h speed limit to calm traffic and make it safer.

Federal Transport Minister Volker Wissing said: "The 49-euro ticket is a milestone, but it is only a first step. Massive investments in infrastructure are needed to make public transport really attractive."

"Anyone who still believes that the car should remain the backbone of our mobility is ignoring the reality of the climate crisis."

At the societal level, growing awareness of sustainability plays a crucial role. More and more people are willing to change their mobility habits, whether by switching to bicycles, using car sharing or consciously choosing public transport.

Challenges and obstacles

Nevertheless, many challenges remain. The interests of the car industry and the construction industry often block progress. Infrastructure projects such as the expansion of cycle paths or the reactivation of disused railway lines often meet with resistance. In addition, in many places there is a lack of financial resources and political will to implement necessary changes. At the European level, too, coordination between countries is often difficult when it comes to cross-border rail connections.

"The mobility turnaround is not failing because of technology, but because of the convenience and short-sightedness of society."

Additional aspects of the mobility transition

One area that has been underestimated so far is the role of digitalization. Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) can optimise traffic flow, avoid congestion and improve energy efficiency. Apps such as Moovit or Jelbi in Berlin show how multimodal mobility concepts can create a seamless connection between different modes of transport.

Logistics also plays an important role: With the increase in online retail, new concepts such as micro-depot logistics, e-delivery vehicles and bicycle couriers must be promoted in order to make inner-city delivery traffic more sustainable and relieve urban traffic flows.

Mobility needs are changing

The global demand for mobility will increase massively in the coming decades. According to a forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand for passenger transport could increase by over 80% by 2050 and exceed the 110 trillion passenger-kilometre mark. The main drivers of this development are sustained population growth – especially in emerging and developing countries – as well as increasing urbanization, in which around 70% of the world's population will live in cities by 2050. In addition, there is growing prosperity in many regions, which is leading to higher demand for mobility.

In Asia, the main growth market, mobility demand is expected to increase by more than 100% by 2050, driven by countries such as India and China. At the same time, technological innovation and the development of sustainable transport infrastructures will play a central role in meeting this demand while minimising environmental impact.

"If we do not make mobility demand climate-friendly, emissions will continue to rise uncontrollably despite all the efficiency gains - with catastrophic consequences for the global environmental agenda."

Global Mobility Demand Growth until 2050

Outlook: Mobility in the coming decades

The next few decades will be marked by far-reaching changes in mobility. According to a study by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the share of electric vehicles worldwide will rise to over 60% by 2050, while fossil private transport will decline significantly. In Europe, rail transport is expected to double its share of passenger and freight transport to 30% by 2040, driven by massive investments in infrastructure and technology.

Digitalisation will play a key role: autonomous driving, intelligent traffic control and Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) will make mobility more efficient, safer and more sustainable. The drivers of this development are technological advances, political goals such as EU climate neutrality by 2050 and social pressure towards greater sustainability.

The effects of these changes are manifold. Cities could become quieter, cleaner and more livable, while rural areas could benefit from a higher quality of life through better transport connections. However, this transformation also poses challenges: social justice must be maintained so that new mobility solutions are accessible to all, and not just to a privileged minority.

"The mobility of the future is digital, shared and electric – if you are not prepared for this, you will fall by the wayside."

Conclusion: More courage for a real turnaround

The mobility turnaround is more than a technical change. It requires a fundamental realignment of our transport policy, settlement planning and social priorities. Success will only be possible if all actors – politics, business and society – pull together. Positive examples from other countries show that change is possible. Now we need the courage not only to discuss innovative concepts, but to implement them consistently.