In the last five years, conflicts and armed conflicts have increased significantly worldwide. This development raises worrying questions: Why are there an accumulation of crises? Where is there a threat of further escalation? And what economic effects can be expected?
Current wars and conflicts of the last five years
Ukraine-Russia War (2022 - present)
Location: Eastern Europe, Ukraine
The reason: geopolitical tensions exacerbated by Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and Ukraine's demand for NATO membership. Russia's invasion in February 2022 escalated the conflict.
Outcome: Still open - The war continues, without a clear winner. Ukraine is receiving Western support, while Russia is facing economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation.
Winners: arms industry, energy exporters outside Russia.
Losers: The civilian population, the Ukrainian and Russian economies, Europe due to rising energy prices.
Tigray-Conflict (2020 - 2022)
Location: Ethiopia, Tigray Region
Cause: Political tensions between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian central government.
Outcome: The conflict was ended by a ceasefire in 2022, but the country remains fragile.
Winners: No clear winners.
Losers: The civilian population, especially due to famine and displacement.
Afghanistan (2021)
Ort: Afghanistan
The reason: The return of the Taliban to power after the withdrawal of NATO troops.
Outcome: The Taliban took control, which led to the restriction of human rights, especially for women.
Winner: The Taliban and their supporters.
Losers: The Afghan population, especially women and minorities.
Yemen war (since 2014)
Location: Yemen
The cause: civil war between the Houthi movement and the Yemeni government, supported by a coalition led by Saudi Arabia.
Outcome: Still open. The conflict continues, with no clear end in sight.
Winner: Arms smuggling networks.
Losers: The civilian population, which suffers from famine and cholera.
Areas with imminent clashes
In addition to the existing conflicts, there are areas where tensions are increasing and there is a risk of escalation. These include:
Taiwan and the South China Sea: Relations between China and Taiwan have deteriorated, and a military confrontation is looming. The region is also strategically important for trade routes, which could have global implications.
Iran-Israel conflict: Tensions in the region have increased, especially after the escalation around Iran's nuclear program and drone attacks.
West Africa (Sahel): The increasing instability in the Sahel zone, caused by Islamist insurgencies and political instability, could trigger further conflicts.
Economic impact
Wars and conflicts have not only humanitarian but also immense economic consequences. Regions affected by conflict often experience massive destruction of infrastructure and a decline in trade. Globally, recent conflicts have led to:
Rising energy prices: The war in Ukraine in particular led to a sharp increase in oil and gas prices.
Distortions in global supply chains: Wars lead to disruptions, such as grain exports from Ukraine.
Rising arms spending: Countries involved in the conflicts, as well as their allies, have significantly increased their military spending.
Expert Assessments
According to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), there is a high probability that further conflicts will develop in the coming years. "We are seeing a fragmentation of the global order that increases the risk of new conflicts," said Dr. John Svensson, a leading analyst on international security.
Another expert, Professor Miriam Weber, commented: "The scarcity of resources and geopolitical rivalries between great powers could pose the greatest threat to peace and stability in the next five years."
Danger for Europe and the world
In particular, the energy crisis and the influx of refugees pose a serious challenge for Europe. The risk of economic and social instability is growing. In addition, the risk of cyber wars threatening critical infrastructures remains.
Over the past decade, armed conflicts and violent attacks have changed significantly, especially in terms of technology use, tactics, and the nature of the threats. Several clear tendencies can be identified that shape the course of wars and crises today:
Hybrid Warfare
Hybrid warfare, which combines conventional military means with non-conventional ones such as cyberattacks, disinformation and economic sabotage, has increased. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a classic example: In addition to the physical invasion, Russia is massively relying on cyber attacks against Ukrainian infrastructures as well as propaganda and disinformation to cause unrest.
Trend: Wars are increasingly taking place in multiple dimensions – physical, digital and in the media. Threats range from cyberattacks that paralyze energy supplies and communication systems to targeted misinformation that destroys trust in government institutions.
Drones and autonomous weapon systems
Drones have established themselves as a key factor in military conflicts in recent years. They are used by both states and non-state actors. Examples can be found in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, where Azerbaijani drones played a decisive role in the conflict with Armenia. In the Yemen war, too, drones are increasingly being used for both surveillance and attacks.
Trend: Drones and autonomous weapon systems lower the inhibition threshold for the use of force, as they make it possible to carry out attacks from a safe distance. At the same time, threats to civilian targets are increasing as drones precisely target infrastructure and supply routes.
Rise of non-state actors
In many conflicts in recent years, non-state groups have played a central role. Terrorist organizations such as the Islamic State (IS) or regional militias such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen are waging asymmetrical wars against state actors, often without regard for international conventions. These groups often rely on guerrilla tactics, terrorist attacks and the use of civilian populations as cover.
Trend: Wars are becoming more and more complex because many actors are involved, who often do not create clear fronts. States face elusive enemies who hide among civilians and use unconventional warfare.
Cyber Warfare
Cyber attacks have become a key threat. In the Ukraine conflict, targeted cyberattacks were carried out against Ukraine's power grid and financial system. States such as Iran and North Korea have also increasingly relied on cyber warfare to attack critical infrastructures of their enemies.
Trend: The focus is shifting from purely military operations to attacks on critical infrastructure and state institutions. Such attacks are often difficult to trace, which increases the risk of escalation.
Weapons developments and nuclear threat
The advancement of modern weapons technologies has led to increasingly devastating consequences. Hypersonic missiles, which fly at extremely high speed and are difficult to intercept, are increasingly being developed, especially in the United States, China and Russia. The threat of nuclear escalation is also more present than ever, especially from countries like North Korea and the ongoing dispute over Iran's nuclear program.
Trend: The technological gap between different countries is widening, and the risk of weapons of mass destruction is growing. The use of modern weapons technologies increases global insecurity, as attacks can be carried out faster and more precisely.
Cities and civilians as main settings
Wars are increasingly taking place in urban areas, which has a greater impact on the civilian population. In the Syrian conflict and the battle for Mosul, the destruction of urban infrastructure and civilian residential areas was enormous. This warfare exacerbates humanitarian crises and makes it more difficult to distinguish between combatants and civilians.
Trend: Cities are becoming the main theaters of wars, which complicates both military operations and humanitarian aid. At the same time, the consequences for the civilian population, which is increasingly becoming victims of air strikes, bombings and sieges, is intensifying.
Resource conflicts and climate change
Climate change has led to an increase in conflicts in recent years, especially in regions affected by water scarcity, drought and other environmental problems. In Africa's Sahel, access to water and arable land, as well as population growth, have led to escalating conflicts between pastoralists and sedentary farmers. The Tigray conflict in Ethiopia also had strong economic and resource-related causes.
Trend: Environmental conflicts are on the rise as access to natural resources, such as water and fertile land, is increasingly restricted. Climate change is seen as a "threat multiplier" that exacerbates existing tensions and can trigger new conflicts.
The conduct of war and the course of war over the last ten years has changed significantly in several areas. Technological warfare such as drones, cyberattacks, and autonomous weapons systems dominate. Civilians are increasingly caught in the crossfire. Urban warfare and asymmetrical wars lead to massive civilian casualties. Hybrid threats are on the rise. In addition to military means, economic, digital and propaganda means are also used. Future conflicts are likely to be more strongly influenced by technological innovations, climate change and non-state actors, which poses new challenges for the international community.
The increase in wars and crises worldwide is worrying. Not only the immediate humanitarian costs, but also the long-term economic impact are significant. Europe must prepare for the consequences, as it is affected both as a scene of potential crises and as an economic zone. The international community is faced with the challenge of finding new ways of resolving conflicts in order to prevent escalation.
The following chart shows the increase in wars and crises over the last 60 years:
The number of global wars and crises from 1960 to 2020
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