The mobility turnaround, which was initiated with the introduction of electric cars, is at a crossroads. While electric vehicles were seen as a beacon of hope for the decarbonisation of transport, scepticism has been growing recently. Headlines such as "E-mobility on the brink of extinction" and "One in three e-car drivers returns to the combustion engine" paint a picture of increasing uncertainty. This uncertainty affects not only consumers, but also manufacturers and suppliers, who operate in an area of tension between technological innovations, political decisions and global market requirements.
The reasons for the current crisis in e-mobility are manifold. In Germany, the discontinuation of government purchase premiums led to a massive decline in new registrations of battery-electric vehicles. Similar trends can be seen in other European countries, where government support has waned. Consumers are faced with the question of whether an electric car is actually the better choice, especially considering the high initial cost and limited charging infrastructure. In addition, there is widespread uncertainty regarding the environmental balance of electric vehicles. Critics complain that the CO₂ balance of electric cars is worse than often claimed due to the energy-intensive mining of raw materials such as lithium, cobalt and nickel as well as energy-intensive battery production.
The charging infrastructure remains one of the biggest obstacles to the breakthrough of e-mobility. There are currently just under 90,000 public charging points in Germany, which is far from sufficient in view of the growing number of vehicles. In the USA, the charging infrastructure is mainly concentrated in urban centers, while in rural areas there is often no reliable supply. This discrepancy between supply and demand leads to so-called "range anxiety" among consumers, which represent a decisive hurdle for switching to electric cars.
Registration figures: A global view
The registration figures for electric vehicles (EVs) show that the dynamics vary greatly depending on the region:
Europe: While Norway has an EV market share of over 80%, in Germany, the market share of purely battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) fell from 15% to 12% in 2024. Hybrids and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) are experiencing a slight stabilization.
USA: In the United States, the market share of BEVs was about 7%, with a clear focus on the West Coast states. At the same time, SUVs with combustion engines continue to be in high demand.
Asia: China dominates the EV market with over 50% of global registrations, driven by government subsidies and control over battery raw materials. In India, on the other hand, combustion engines are still the main choice due to their cost advantages.
Germany: Despite extensive subsidy programs, the number of new registrations for BEVs fell after the end of state subsidies. Combustion engines recorded a slight recovery in the same period.
Causes of Declining EV Numbers
Subsidy freezes and uncertainties: In Germany, the discontinuation of purchase premiums led to a slump in BEV registrations. Without government support, e-cars seem too expensive for many consumers.
Charging infrastructure: In Europe and the USA, the expansion of charging points is lagging behind demand. In rural regions, range anxiety is still a decisive factor.
Dependence on raw materials: Critics complain about the environmentally harmful methods used in the mining of lithium, cobalt and nickel. At the same time, the cost of these materials is rising.
Political uncertainties: In Europe, there is a debate about the "phasing out of internal combustion engines" from 2035, which is unsettling many buyers. The USA, on the other hand, continues to promote internal combustion engines through tax incentives for conventional fuels.
At the same time, the classic combustion engine is experiencing a renaissance. Especially in markets such as India and South America, but also in certain regions of the USA, the combustion engine continues to dominate due to its availability, established infrastructure and comparatively low acquisition costs. In Europe, there is intense debate about the role of synthetic fuels, which are considered a lower-emission substitute for fossil fuels. While critics note that the production of eFuels is inefficient and expensive, proponents see it as an opportunity to make existing combustion engines more sustainable.
At the CTI Conference 2024 in Berlin, the panel discussion with the provocative title "Back from the Death? ICE in Passenger Vehicles" attracted lively interest and controversial debates. Experts from the automotive industry, research and politics discussed the future of the combustion engine in a changing mobility market.
A central point of the discussion was the question of whether internal combustion engines, especially in combination with synthetic fuels (eFuels), can continue to play a relevant role. As part of a panel discussion with Dr. Norbert W. Alt, COO of FEV Europe GmbH, Prof. Dr.-Ing. Maximilian Brauer from the Technical University of Berlin, Dr. Tobias Block from the eFuel Alliance ev. and Markus Lienkamp from the Technical University of Munich, the current developments in the automotive industry were discussed. While we all agreed that electric mobility and e-fuels will play an important role in the future, there were different opinions on how to get there. Prof. Bauer and I pleaded for the use of all options taking into account customer wishes. A revision of the current CO2 emission standards to include renewable fuels is therefore necessary. However, Alt emphasized that customers and industry can no longer afford parallel development and that clarification of technological development is necessary.
The panel discussion impressively showed that the return of the combustion engine as a sustainable alternative cannot be ruled out. However, their future depends heavily on technological breakthroughs, policy frameworks, and consumer acceptance. The participants agreed that the mobility of the future requires a variety of solutions and that no single technology can meet the requirements of all markets and applications.
But political discussions are also being held elsewhere. Dr. Susanne Weber, an advisor at the Federal Ministry of Transport, once explained that the EU must continue to rely on a technology-open strategy: "It's not about playing technologies off against each other, but about promoting the right solutions for the respective use cases." However, she indicated that the political focus in Europe is clearly on promoting electric vehicles, while other regions such as South America and Africa see the internal combustion engine as economically essential.
The future of drive types remains contested. Battery electric vehicles continue to be seen as key to reducing greenhouse gases, especially in countries with highly decarbonized power generation. Advances in battery technology, for example through the development of solid-state batteries, could solve the range problem and reduce the environmental impact. Nevertheless, raw material dependence remains an unsolved problem, especially as the demand for battery materials increases worldwide.
Hybrids and plug-in hybrids are seen as bridging technologies that could facilitate the transition from fossil fuels to electric powertrains. They offer consumers the flexibility of an internal combustion engine while at the same time reducing emissions in urban traffic. However, this technology is coming under increasing pressure, as it is often not used as intended in practice. Research shows that many plug-in hybrid drivers run their vehicles predominantly on fossil fuels, which means that the environmental advantage is largely lost.
Hydrogen-powered vehicles, especially those with fuel cells, could play a significant role in certain sectors such as heavy-duty transport or industry. Hydrogen has the advantage that it can be burned emission-free and has a high energy density. However, the high cost of infrastructure and the inefficient conversion of renewable energy into hydrogen are major hurdles. Experts such as automotive researcher Ferdinand Dudenhöffer emphasize that hydrogen will remain more of a niche solution unless massive investments are made in infrastructure.
Another aspect of the discussion is the role of biofuels and synthetic fuels, which are of particular interest to aviation and maritime transport. They offer the possibility of continuing to use existing vehicles and infrastructure, but are met with criticism because of their limited availability and competition with food production.
The future of drive types
The question of which drive types will dominate in the long term depends on numerous factors. A forecast up to 2050:
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs): BEVs will continue to gain traction, especially in urban centers and countries with strong political support. Advances in battery technology could solve range and cost problems.
Hybrids and plug-in hybrids: These drives serve as transitional technologies, but could last longer in markets without a nationwide charging infrastructure.
Combustion engines with synthetic fuels (eFuels): In aviation and long-haul trucks, combustion engines could remain relevant for a long time to come thanks to eFuels or biofuels.
Hydrogen and fuel cells (FCEV): Hydrogen is considered particularly promising for heavy commercial vehicles and in Asia. However, high infrastructure costs and low efficiency remain challenges.
Innovative models (battery-as-a-service, range extenders): These concepts could create new business models, for example through battery exchange stations in Asia.
The future of propulsion is not either or, but both. Different regions and market segments require flexible solutions.
Consumer uncertainty is also reflected in purchasing decisions. Studies show that, in addition to the acquisition costs, reliability, the availability of charging stations and the actual environmental balance are decisive. Another decisive criterion is long-distance suitability, where many electric cars still have deficits.
The debate about the future of mobility shows that there is no universal solution. The mobility transition requires a combination of technologies tailored to the specific requirements of different markets. While electric cars will continue to gain importance in urban centers, combustion engines, hydrogen and synthetic fuels could play an important role in other areas. The decisive factor will be how quickly politics and industry create the necessary framework conditions to make these technologies sustainable.
The mobility of tomorrow will be shaped not only by technological innovations, but also by social and political decisions. Consumers expect solutions that are both environmentally and economically sustainable. Manufacturers and suppliers must position themselves in this area of tension in order to successfully shape the mobility transition.
Professor Dr. Stefan Bratzel from the Center of Automotive Management sees BEVs as winners in the long term, but only with faster infrastructure expansion. The management consultancy McKinsey predicts that hydrogen will play a growing role in industry and heavy-duty transport. Critics such as Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, on the other hand, warn against the "exaggerated euphoria" of BEVs, as the dependence on raw materials calls sustainability into question.
The mobility turnaround remains complex
The future of mobility will be shaped by regional differences, political frameworks and technological advances. While BEVs could dominate in many markets, other technologies such as eFuels and hydrogen will find their place in specific applications. The decisive factor will be how flexibly politics and industry react to these challenges.
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